Duncan Robinson Contract: Duncan Robinson, the sharpshooting forward for the Miami Heat, has become a household name in the NBA, not just for his elite three-point shooting but also for his remarkable journey from an undrafted player to signing one of the largest contracts ever for an undrafted free agent. His current contract situation, particularly as of the 2025 offseason, has sparked significant discussion among fans, analysts, and NBA insiders. Let’s break down the details of Robinson’s contract, his career trajectory, and what his future might hold, all while exploring the nuances of his financial and professional standing with the Miami Heat.
Table of Contents
From Undrafted to a $90 Million Deal
Duncan Robinson’s story is the stuff of NBA dreams. Born on April 22, 1994, in York, Maine, Robinson went undrafted in the 2018 NBA Draft after a stellar college career at Williams College (NCAA Division III) and later at the University of Michigan. His journey to the NBA was anything but conventional. After going undrafted, he signed a two-way contract with the Miami Heat in July 2018, splitting time between the Heat and their G League affiliate, the Sioux Falls Skyforce. His performance in the G League was exceptional, setting franchise records for single-season three-point shots made (157) and career three-point shooting percentage (48.5%).
Robinson’s breakout came during the 2019-20 season, where he averaged 13.5 points per game, shooting 44.6% from beyond the arc, establishing himself as one of the league’s premier shooters. His ability to stretch the floor and create spacing for teammates like Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo made him a cornerstone of Miami’s rotation. This led to a historic moment in August 2021 when Robinson signed a five-year, $90 million contract with the Miami Heat, the largest deal ever for an undrafted player at the time. The contract, which included an early termination option (ETO) for the 2025-26 season, carried an annual average salary of $18 million, with $80 million guaranteed.
The 2025 Offseason: A Pivotal Moment
Fast forward to June 2025, and Robinson’s contract became a focal point of NBA offseason discussions. His deal included a $19.9 million ETO for the 2025-26 season, which he could exercise by June 29, 2025, to become an unrestricted free agent. If he opted to stay, only $9.9 million of that amount was guaranteed unless the Heat fully guaranteed the contract by July 8, 2025. Reports from ESPN and other sources indicated that Robinson declined the ETO, choosing to enter free agency to either negotiate a new deal with the Heat or explore opportunities elsewhere, potentially via a sign-and-trade.
This decision was significant for both Robinson and the Heat. By declining the ETO, Robinson forfeited a guaranteed $9.9 million but opened the door to potentially secure a longer-term contract. Posts on X suggested that the Heat and Robinson were working toward a new deal at a lower annual salary, possibly around $10 million per season, which would provide Miami with greater salary cap flexibility while keeping Robinson’s valuable floor-spacing ability. Alternatively, there were rumors of trade talks, with one post mentioning potential interest from the Detroit Pistons for a three-year, $48 million deal.
The Contract’s Structure and Implications
The structure of Robinson’s $90 million contract has been both a blessing and a point of contention. In the 2024-25 season, he earned $19.4 million, with a cap hit of the same amount. However, the partially guaranteed final year (2025-26) gave the Heat an out: they could waive Robinson by July 8, 2025, and pay only $9.9 million, saving $10 million against the luxury tax. This flexibility made Robinson’s contract an intriguing trade chip, as noted by the Miami Herald, which highlighted how teams looking to reduce their luxury tax burden could acquire Robinson before the guarantee deadline to lower their cap hit.
Critics, including an NBA executive quoted by Sports Illustrated in 2022, labeled Robinson’s contract as one of the “worst” in the league due to its length and cost, especially after his shooting dipped to 32% from three in the 2022-23 season. However, Robinson rebounded impressively in the 2024-25 season, averaging 11 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 2.4 assists in 74 games, with a 39.7% three-point shooting percentage. His ability to evolve beyond a one-dimensional shooter, adding 5.5 drives per game and finishing efficiently at the rim, has justified his value to the Heat.
What’s Next for Robinson?
As of July 2, 2025, Robinson’s future remains uncertain but full of possibilities. If he re-signs with the Heat, a reduced salary could align with Miami’s need to manage their payroll under the NBA’s stringent luxury tax rules. A new deal could also solidify his role as a key piece of Miami’s supporting cast, especially after the team’s disappointing 2024-25 season, where they won only 37 games and were swept in the playoffs. Alternatively, a sign-and-trade or a move to another team could see Robinson bring his shooting prowess to a new contender.
Robinson’s journey from an undrafted Division III player to a multi-millionaire is a testament to his work ethic and skill. His contract situation reflects the complexities of the NBA’s salary cap landscape, where player value, team strategy, and financial flexibility intersect. Whether he stays with the Heat or moves on, Robinson’s impact as a floor spacer and his inspiring story will continue to resonate.
FAQs
1. What is Duncan Robinson’s current contract with the Miami Heat?
As of the 2024-25 season, Duncan Robinson was in the fourth year of a five-year, $90 million contract signed in August 2021. He earned $19.4 million in 2024-25, but he declined his $19.9 million early termination option for 2025-26 to become a free agent.
2. Why did Duncan Robinson decline his early termination option?
By declining the ETO, Robinson opted for free agency, allowing him to negotiate a new deal with the Heat or explore opportunities with other teams. This move could secure a longer-term contract, potentially at a lower annual salary, or involve a sign-and-trade.
3. How much has Duncan Robinson earned in his NBA career?
As of the 2024-25 season, Robinson has earned approximately $73.1 million from NBA contracts, with the bulk coming from his $90 million deal. If he had stayed for the final year, his earnings would have neared $100 million.
4. Is Duncan Robinson’s contract considered a good deal for the Heat?
Opinions vary. Some critics called it one of the NBA’s worst due to its size and Robinson’s inconsistent performance in 2022-23. However, his 2024-25 season resurgence and unique floor-spacing ability make it valuable, especially for a cap-strapped team like Miami.
5. Could Duncan Robinson be traded?
Yes, his contract’s partial guarantee for 2025-26 makes it an attractive trade chip for teams looking to reduce luxury tax burdens. There were rumors of a potential move to Detroit for a three-year, $48 million deal.